Shale impact: OPEC cuts demand forecast

The  emergence of Shale gas from  Unites States has started with its impact on the supply of crude oil to the global market as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC )  has considered reduction of forecasts on crude oil supply to the global market within the next  three years.

OPEC expects it will need to pump an average of 29.2 million barrels a day of crude next year, 200,000 barrel daily  less than it forecast a month ago. The group boosted estimates for supplies from countries outside OPEC by the same amount. The change implies that OPEC’s 12 members would need to cut output by about 1.1 million barrels a day from the 30.3 million they produced in August.

Brent crude futures declined below $100 a barrel on September 8 for the first time in 14 months amid constrained global consumption, swelling US. output and speculation that threats to supply in Iraq, Libya and Russia are fading. US crude production will surge to a 45-year high next year, lowering prices and reducing the need for imports, the nation’s Energy Information Administration has said.

“Supply concerns appear to be receding, as geopolitical tension in Ukraine and the Middle East have not led to major supply disruptions,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said in its monthly oil market report.

OPEC’s 12 members boosted output by 230,900 barrels a day to 30.35 million a day in August as Libya restored disrupted supplies, while Angola and Nigeria boosted production, secondary sources cited by the report showed. Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest producer and de facto leader, trimmed production by 55,200 barrels a day to 9.86 million a day.e barrels in 2014,” TorbjoernKjus, an analyst at DNB in Oslo, said by phone. “We do see very large stock builds this year. Next year, we need to have significant production cuts if we want to avoid further stock builds.”

Non-OPEC producers will increase output by 1.24 million barrels a day to 57.16 million a day in 2015, with the bulk of the growth concentrated in the Americas, according to the report.

Source : Independent

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